Publications

China´s economic growth is forecast to slow down to 6% while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies will increase further in 2019

India´s economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 remains robust with about 7% growth, but a weak banking sector and high corporate indebtedness are concerns.

Indonesia´s short-term economic prospects are generally positive, but it remains vulnerable to sharply decreasing capital flows to emerging markets.

Japan´s export growth will slow down due to lower global trade expansion, but domestic demand will underpin the economic expansion of about 1% in 2019.

The export sector increasingly benefits from relocation of export-oriented industries away from China, due to Vietnam’s relatively low production costs.

Private consumption and public infrastructure investments sustain Thailand´s economic growth in 2019 and 2020, but high household debt remains an issue.

Economic growth is expected to slow down somewhat in 2019 and 2020, mainly due to lower export growth and the cooling down of the Chinese economic cycle.

Due to its high dependency on international trade, Singapore is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

Major infrastructure investment is necessary in order to increase private investments and to safeguard high economic growth rates in the long term.

Due to its high dependency on international trade, South Korea is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

Taiwan´s economic expansion is likely to moderate in 2019 and in 2020, as both global trade growth and mainland China´s import demand have cooled down.

After nearly a decade of annual improvements, 2019 is expected to mark the first year of insolvency growth since the crisis.

As many building materials are imported from the EU tariffs or limits on quantities imported after Brexit could lead to higher costs and material shortage.

The construction materials subsector clearly benefits from increased building material prices, and elevated costs are expected to persist throughout 2019.

The payment duration in the industry has increased to 70 days on average, and the payment experience over the past two years has been rather bad.

Many smaller construction companies have weak equity ratios and limited financial scope, which makes them vulnerable to payment delays and defaults.

Competition in the Swedish construction sector is high and consolidation is ongoing, with financially stronger groups buying financially weaker peers.

The insolvency level is high compared to other industries, and after increasing in 2018 business failures are expected rise further in H1 of 2019.

Payment behaviour in the construction industry slowly deteriorated in 2017 and 2018, and this negative trend is expected to continue in the coming months.

The overall indebtedness of many Belgian construction businesses is still high, while banks remain rather unwilling to provide credit to the industry.