Publications

Subdued economic growth despite massive stimulus measures remains an issue, while exports are helped by a yen depreciation against the USD in 2017.

A prudent fiscal policy has limited the consequences of low oil and gas prices, but the economy is vulnerable to a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

GDP growth is expected to remain at a level of about 6% in 2017, but growing political uncertainty could hamper business sentiment and foreign investment.

In 2017 the economic performance continues to be impacted by weaker demand from China and other Asian countries, but strong fundamentals remain.

Growing political uncertainty after the president´s impeachment, subdued private consumption, and lower exports to China weigh on economic growth.

Growing competition from mainland China in the electronics sector require productivity increases and a diversification of the economy in the long-term.

GDP is forecast to grow about 3% in 2017, but high household debt, inequality and low incomes will put downward pressure on consumption growth.

High growth of more than 6% in 2017, but economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses and Vietnamese businesses suffer from limited access to capital.

Gas prices have bottomed out and Atradius expects them to increase over the period up to 2021. Demand will be more moderate, but fueled primarily by China.

Atradius picks the top most promising markets for business opportunities in 2017 due to previous strong performances and expected improvement in 2017.

Developments in the US related to the election of Donald Trump and its expected effect on the US monetary policy path and international trade introduce significant uncertainty for EMEs in 2017.

The demand situation is benign, but food businesses continue to suffer from margin pressure due to high labour and energy costs and stiff competition.

While German food exports continue to increase, domestic market conditions have become increasingly difficult. Overcapacity is an issue in some segments.

Smaller food retailer and wholesalers margins remain under pressure and are expected to lose further market share, while customer behaviour is changing.

The current trend of merger and acquisition towards a subsequent consolidation in the US food market is expected to accelerate in the coming years.

Exports are of major importance for the French food sector (especially for the beverages segment), positively contributing to the French trade balance.

Sector risks have increased after the Brexit decision, and exporters to the UK have already suffered shrinking margins due to currency volatility.

Business failures in the Polish food retail segment have increased in 2016, as mainly smaller players suffer from fierce competition and low margins.

Large food businesses are active globally and performing well, while smaller producers and wholesalers generally face tough competition and low margins.

Gearing of food businesses is generally high, and can be a significant risk for companies with weak profitability and focus on the domestic market.

The outlook for food exports remains positive, with further demand growth from overseas expected, due to the strong reputation of “Made in Italy”.

The economic downturn of two main export markets - Brazil and Angola - has led to reduced exports and, to some extent, investment levels in the sector.

While the industry is still fragmented, consolidation is on-going and companies should gain size and become more competitive domestically and abroad.

Economic growth is expected to pick up in 2017, but uncertainty about the new US administration (potential protectionist trade policies) casts a shadow.

The consequences of any US shift on its Mexico policy remain to be seen, but increased currency volatility has already an negative impact on the economy.

Steady, but uneven growth is expected to persist. Domestic demand is the main driver of expansion, but manufacturing and export performance remain subdued.

Pressures on international trade are mounting around the globe and the outlook is increasingly uncertain.

Automotive suppliers´ margins remain structurally under pressure, as the powerful car manufacturers demand greater productivity, coupled with lower prices.

Suppliers´ margins have decreased for the last couple of years, due to higher material and labour costs, rising competition and pressure on sales prices.

The Spanish automotive industry continues to benefit from the on-going economic rebound of the domestic economy as well as from increasing car exports.

The short-term outlook remains benign, but the Brexit decision will surely have an impact on domestic car sales and British car exports in the mid-term.

While market conditions for the sector are expected to remain favourable for the time being, some downside risks could materialise in the course of 2017.

In this sector payment experience has been satisfying over the past two years, and non-payments are not expected to increase in the coming months.

As car sales approach the pre-recession peak, the sector needs to adjust from what has been a growth environment to a more steady-state market situation.

The Mexican automotive sector is expected to continue growing in the coming years, with production forecast to increase to 5.2 million vehicles in 2020.

Major strengths of the Slovakian automotive industry are its close proximity to core export markets in Europe, low labour costs, and government support.

Most businesses in the automotive sector should be financially resilient enough to cope with some minor volatility in demand or commodity prices.

Foreign exchange risks, fierce competition, high taxes and the fact that many businesses are undercapitalised pose downside risks for the industry.

Nearly 90% of the survey respondents in Asia Pacific reported having experienced late payment of invoices from their B2B customers over the past year.

Nearly 24% of Australian suppliers surveyed consider maintaining adequate cash flow levels to be the greatest challenge to business profitability in 2016.

Suppliers surveyed in China (38.2%) appear to be the most likely of all their peers in Asia Pacific to sell on cash terms to their B2B customers.

The highest percentage of the suppliers interviewed in Hong Kong (42%) reported that domestic B2B customers pay invoices late due to liquidity issues.

As a consequence of late payment by B2B customers, 45% of suppliers surveyed in India reported they had to take specific measures to correct cash flow.

Cost containment and cash flow position considered greatest challenges to business profitability by 18% of Indonesian suppliers (20% in Asia Pacific).

Most of the suppliers surveyed in Japan (33%) reported that foreign late payment is most often a consequence of the complexity of the payment procedure.

Despite no variation in either domestic or foreign late payment rates, the average 46 days DSO recorded in Singapore is six days longer than last year.

91% of respondents in Taiwan (88% at regional level) reported late payment of invoices by domestic and foreign B2B customers over the past year.

China is a major economic and trading power. Trade successfully with China sets out ten simple-to-follow rules that can help make your trading relationships with China lasting and successful.

On 15 November 2016, Atradius Credit Insurance hosted a webinar that looked at the opportunities available for trade with China and how to safely transact your business.

Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.