Publications

After increasing 4% in 2018 GDP growth is expected to decelerate to below 3% due to lower household consumption and less investment and export growth.

In Central Europe, Poland's economy looks most vulnerable to the financial and economic fallout of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the EU.

Romania´s GDP is expected to grow at a lower pace in 2018 and 2019 as export growth has slowed and domestic demand is cooling due to higher interest rates.

Despite the current rebound the long-term prospect for higher growth rates is subdued due to structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions.

Despite monetary tightening the economy remains susceptible to further currency volatility, and the risk of a severe economic downturn has increased.

Im Rahmen des Atradius Zahlungsmoralbarometers 2018 gaben die Teilnehmer aus Osteuropa an, im Befragungszeitraum seltener von Zahlungsverzügen betroffen gewesen zu sein als zuvor.

Of the Eastern European countries surveyed, Bulgaria had the highest DSO and 19.8% of respondents expect another slight increase over the coming 12 months.

The percentage of Czech respondents reporting late payment remained largely stable. However, at 89.8% this is one of the highest percentages in the region.

In 2018, respondents in Hungary reported a significant increase in DSO and that the proportion of uncollectable B2B receivables also went up slightly.

Due to overdue B2B invoices, 20.3% of respondents in Romania had to postpone payments to their own suppliers while 14.8% had to correct cash flow.

The proportion of past due B2B invoices is the second highest in the region and almost 60% of Polish respondents said that this affected their businesses.

Despite improvements in 2018, respondents in Slovakia reported an increase in DSO and 27.5% of businesses seem to have been impacted by late payments.

2018 brought many changes in Turkey – more frequent payment delays, increases in the proportion of overdue B2B invoices and DSO, a longer payment duration.

It seems that the market is rather resilient in the light of the ongoing Sino-US trade dispute, but overcapacity in the electric car segment is increasing.

Any imposition of tariffs on car parts and vehicle imports would severely impact the US automotive industry, most probably leading to more insolvencies.

Both payment delays and insolvencies are expected to increase in the coming months as decreasing investments and lower production will impact suppliers.

Despite the ongoing upturn, automotive suppliers at the lower end of the value chain face elevated debt levels, strong competition and price pressure.

Margins continue to decrease due to increased material and labour costs, rising competition, pressure on sales prices and the need to invest heavily.

The sector shows good growth rates, but manufacturers active in the US are affected by the import tariffs on steel and aluminium imposed since June 2017.

Smaller automotive businesses experienced a decrease in equity, solvency and liquidity ratios - a trend that is expected continue in the coming months.

The impact of potential US tariffs on car and car-part producers would be limited, as the US is not a key market for Spanish OEMs due to their model range.

While sales in the Mexican automotive market remained subdued in the first half of 2018 car exports have increased 10%, helped by new production plants.

Due to the high export dependence any imposition of import tariffs by the US would have an adverse impact on the sector, especially for Tier 1 businesses.

Payment duration in the Slovakian automotive sector ranges from 45 to 90 days, and the payment experience has been good over the past two years.

Profit margins are rather high in the sector, with most businesses financially resilient enough to cope with minor volatility in demand or commodity prices.

Despite the rebound in oil prices economic growth is expected to recover only modestly in 2018 as fiscal consolidation hampers private consumption growth.

Despite the painful short-term effect of rising prices for consumers, in the medium-term the economy should benefit from the IMF-programme related reforms.

Economic expansion has been maintained through robust performance of automotive, aeronautics, chemicals and electronics industries and the tourism sector.

The economic diversification will proceed only slowly, leaving the economy largely dependent on oil revenues and state support for the time being.

Tackling bureaucracy and reforming the tax and subsidy systems are necessary to improve the economic conditions and to reduce the high unemployment rate.

Economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2018 and 2019, due to higher oil prices, stronger external demand and the easing of fiscal consolidation.

Chemicals businesses dependent on raw materials imports are highly exposed to exchange rate volatility and the looming threat of trade restrictions.

Good short-term outlook for the chemicals sector, but Brexit poses a downside risk for businesses profitability and payment behaviour in the mid-term.

Indonesian pharmaceuticals sector growth is driven by a rising population and the roll-out of the government's universal healthcare insurance system.

Further growth expected, but businesses dependent on construction, construction materials and consumer durables still require particular attention.

Potential taxes on chemicals-related imports could find US chemicals businesses paying more for feedstocks and would negatively impact supply chains.

Sales growth in the pharmaceuticals and healthcare market is supported by a robust economic outlook and increasing private and public healthcare spending.

Payment delays have not increased in 2017, despite many businesses suffering from decreased liquidity due to higher import prices for commodities.

Payment behaviour in the Polish chemicals sector has been good over the past two years, and the number of non-payments and insolvencies has been low.

Payment delays and insolvencies are expected to increase in the chemicals sector due to lower sales and the lira depreciation since the end of 2017.

Despite concerns about energy security, the gas trade between Europe and Russia is working for the benefit of both

All eyes are on US trade policy, but we forecast trade to continue to grow robustly in 2018.

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices increased in 2018 impacting 64.1% of survey respondents in countries surveyed in the Americas.

Like most of their peers in the Americas, respondents in Brazil reported an increase in the proportion of overdue B2B invoices this year.

The recent bout of lira depreciation in the run-up to the snap elections has reduced import demand from Turkey and increased payment risk.

Pound sterling depreciation in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 has had significant impacts on UK-EU trade flows.

Despite still high growth rates the sector is facing a challenging economic environment, with fiercer competition and oversupplies in some segments.

A deterioration of trade relations with China could negatively affect the ICT component supply side and confront US end-consumers with higher sales prices.

Despite increasing challenges a recovery of the exchange rate and a rather stable economic outlook for 2018 should help the ICT industry in the short-term.

While many Japanese ICT businesses are highly indebted, companies obtain finance easily as banks are very willing to lend and interest rates are low.