Publications

While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.

Suppliers active in the combustion engine parts and car metals segments are severely affected by deteriorating demand and a high level of competition.

US tariffs could severely impact Japanese suppliers of low value added/basic car parts, as OEMs could replace their products with tariff-free items.

Local-owned Tier 2 suppliers remain susceptible to commodity price changes and exchange rate volatility, with limited options to pass on higher prices.

Higher costs, reduced orders, price pressure and changes in the type of products demanded could put the finances of many smaller suppliers under stress.

Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 3% in the coming 12 months, mainly affecting car dealers, car part distributors and Tier 2 suppliers.

Larger suppliers could seize the opportunity of buying distressed smaller players in order to expand market share and bargaining power against OEMs.

Corporate insolvencies are on the rise globally due to the more challenging economic environment and high policy uncertainty.

Economic reforms are urgent, especially improving the governance in state-owned enterprises, as large contingent liabilities are of great concern.

Private sector debt developments in the US and China probably won’t trigger an economic crisis but could deepen a downturn, possibly triggered by the bilateral trade war.

Should the Sino-US trade dispute continue or even escalate, US petrochemical businesses would face unfriendly market conditions with falling prices.

The repercussions of the trade dispute with the US have been limited so far, but several US-export dependent SMEs could fail should the dispute continue.

Profitability of businesses is generally high in this sector, but Brexit poses a downside risk for businesses profitability and payment behaviour.

Due to the more difficult market environment and decreasing sales, we have recently downgraded the sector performance outlook from “Excellent” to “Good”.

Profitability of businesses is expected to deteriorate in the coming 12 months, due to lower demand from China and increased oil and naphtha prices.

Performance is affected by slowdown in demand from automotive, uncertainty about Italian fiscal policy and the trade dispute between the US and China.

The French plastics packaging segment is negatively impacted by oil price volatility, increased environmental awareness and stricter regulations.

The Brazilian agrichemicals sector remains very susceptible to sudden changes in climate conditions, market prices and exchange rate fluctuations.

In the medium- to long-term low-cost competitors from Asia and the Middle East could seriously challenge Singapore's export-oriented chemicals industry.

The plastics segment is impacted by environmental awareness and stricter regulations, which could negatively affect businesses in the near future.

The EU continues to buck the international protectionist trend, signing two historic trade agreements.

Although Mexico is well-positioned to withstand shocks, as its external finances remain strong, the country’s economic outlook is weakening.

Despite solid fundamentals, underpinned by persistently strong household and business confidence, clouds are developing over the U.S. economy.

The Brazilian economy is going through a significantly challenging phase, which is severely affecting business and consumer sentiment.

Trade credit risk worries businesses more than trade wars.

The Canadian economy continues to operate near its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced.

Despite healthy growth in many ICT segments, stiff competition is leading to low pricing and margin compression for distributors and retailers alike.

A major increase in insolvencies is not expected for the time being, but cannot be ruled out should the trade dispute with the US further escalate.

Despite the looming Brexit uncertainty, the UK technology sector attracted more venture capital investment in 2018 than any other European country.

Despite further sales growth most businesses continue to operate on very tight margins due to fierce competition, while equity strength is below average.

An economic slowdown in China triggered by the Sino-US trade dispute would surely lead to lower demand for ICT exports to China and to other parts of Asia.

The currently rather good situation for French ICT businesses could quickly worsen, due to the fast changing and very competitive market environment.

The Italian ICT wholesalers and retail segment is negatively impacted by stiff competition, high pressure on margins and liquidity management issues.

ICT continues to be characterised by stiff competition and cheap imports causing pricing pressures, especially for smaller IT resellers and distributors.

The recent escalation of the Sino-US trade dispute and the US restrictions on suppliers to Huawei will surely affect certain Taiwanese ICT businesses.

The profit margins of many Spanish ICT wholesale and retail businesses remain tight, which is mainly due to high competition in terms of sales prices.

While ICT distributors are becoming larger, many smaller companies are changing their business models towards a more IT service-oriented approach.

Payment experience over the past two years has been good and the level of protracted payments and insolvencies remains low compared to other industries.

The domestic ICT market remains affected by stiff competition, declining margins, low entry barriers, lack of bank support and slow economic growth.

World trade growth stagnated in Q1 amid the escalating trade war. While we expect some recovery in 2019, further escalation of the trade war could grind growth to a halt.

European pro-trade policy likely to stay in place after the European elections

In 2019 Austrian economic growth is expected to decelerate after a robust performance in 2018, mainly due to weaker external demand and lower investment.

Swiss economic growth is expected to slow down in 2019, as external demand from the Eurozone and the US has weakened and investment growth decreases.

The Danish economy has regained some of its international competitiveness due to structural reforms that addressed the issue of high labour costs.

A potential downside risk to the economic performance could be the high household debt in case of sharp house price decreases and interest rate increases.

In 2019 the number of Belgian business insolvencies will still be higher than the levels seen before the start of the global credit crisis in 2008.

The Irish economy is expected to grow by about 2.5% in 2019, but remains exposed to ongoing economic uncertainties stemming from the Brexit decision.

Household consumption is sustained by rising employment, higher wages and low interest rates, while lower financing costs support business investments.

In 2019 Dutch export performance is impacted by lower demand from France and Germany, the ongoing Brexit issue and increased global trade uncertainty.

Due to economic stagnation, political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions business insolvencies are forecast to increase by more than 5% in 2019.